大城市效率锁定与中国城镇化路径选择

The Efficiency Lock-in of Large Cities and the Path Choice of China's Urbanization

受城市的行政等级、市辖区(县)、优惠政策等制度性因素影响,中国城市规模效率曲线右侧提升,从而形成大城市效率随着规模的扩大而提高的现象。文章对第六次人口普查数据进行分析后发现,在大城市效率锁定的背景下,跨省人口迁入依然是中国城镇化的主要路径,但对城市效率的解释偏差不断扩大,解释力度明显下降;省内人口迁入的就近城镇化的解释偏差已经开始缩小,解释力度明显提升;而市(县)范围内人口就地城镇化的解释偏差扩大幅度开始减缓。文章认为,中国未来城镇化将由跨省的异地城镇化逐渐过渡到就地就近城镇化,而当前政策应以积极推进省内范围的就近城镇化为主;县市范围的就地城镇化,尤其是在中西部部分落后地区,还不具备大规模推广的基础。

Due to the administrative level of the city, municipal districts(and counties), preferential policies and other institutional factors, China's urban scale efficiency curve upgrades constantly on the right side, which forms a phenomenon that the efficiency of large cities improved along with the expansion of the scale. Base on the analysis of the sixth census data, this paper finds that, in the context of large cities efficiency lock-in, inter-provincial migration is still the main path of urbanization in China, but the explanatory bias is expanding and the explanation is obviously weakened. The explanatory bias of nearby-urbanization has begun to narrow, and the explanation is significantly improved. However, the expansion of explanatory bias of local-urbanization has begun to slow down. The paper points out that the mode of urbanization in China will gradually transit from off-site urbanization to the nearby-urbanization in the future. Current policy should promote actively the nearby-urbanization interior province. Yet, local-urbanization in counties does not have the basis of large-scale promotion, especially in the backward areas in central and western China.