中国就业保护对劳动力市场运行效率影响研究

Empirical Study on the Employment Protection Impact on the Efficiency of the Chinese Labor Market

《劳动合同法》自实施以来对中国劳动力市场运行效率的影响颇受争议。文章利用2012~2016年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,通过构建就业保护因子,运用多层次回归模型从微观视角考察了中国就业保护对劳动者失业水平和工资水平的影响。研究发现,严格的劳动力市场就业保护随着时间的推移呈现双重效应,在显著增加劳动者失业概率的同时提升了劳动者工资水平;长期看,就业保护对劳动力市场形成的就业冲击将逐渐消失,对劳动者工资性收入的边际增收效应有加强趋势,由此提升了劳动力市场运行效率。签订劳动合同与实行加班补偿两类就业保护有助于缩小性别、学历、年龄等带来的工资差距。在适度就业保护框架下劳动力市场更容易在灵活性和稳定性之间寻找到均衡点。

The effect of Labor Contract Law on China's labor market efficiency has been controversial since its implementation. Using data of the dynamic investigation from 2012 to 2016 on the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS),from a prospective of the micro-view, this paper analyzes the effect of employment protection on the wage and employment of labor market by constructing employment protection factor with the multi-level empirical methods. The results indicate that the employment protection strictness has a dual effect. Although the law increases the possibility of unemployment, it increases the wage level at the same time. In the long-run, employment shock caused by the employment protection on the overall labor market will gradually disappear, and its protection helps to gradually improve the marginal income increase over labors' wage, which improves the operational efficiency of the labor market. The employment protection, such as signing employment contract and overtime compensation, can narrow the wage discrimination gap on gender, educational level, and aging. With the balanced framework of the employment protection, the equilibrium between the flexibility and stability will be more likely to appear in the labor market.