对中国人口普查低龄人口数据的再认识

Reassessment on the Youth Age Group Census Data from 1982 to 2010

文章利用2017年户籍登记数据对1982~2010年全国4次人口普查低龄组(0~16岁)数据进行了评估。计算结果表明,"三普"至"六普"0~16岁低龄组漏报率分别为0.88%、2.87%、2.87%和4.11%。"五普"至"六普"期间,青少年人口和中青年劳动年龄人口重报现象逐渐凸显,"五普"和"六普"14~49岁的净重报人口数由677万上升至1 851万。最后,文章根据修正后历次普查低龄组数据重新计算了1990~2010年中国人口出生数量、出生性别比和生育水平,进一步证明由于低龄人口的漏报,以往对于这3个指标的估计存在一定程度的偏差,2005~2010年中国的总和生育率可能在1.6~1.7之间。

Using the 2016 Hukou registration data, the paper evaluates the four rounds of census data at the young age group(0-16 years old) from 1982 to 2010. The results indicate that the missing reported rates of the four rounds of young age group census data from 1982 to 2010(namely from the Third to the Sixth) are 0.88%, 2.87%, 2.87% and 4.11%,respectively. From the fifth census to the sixth census, the repetition rates of census data at young and middle-aged groups are gradually increasing. The net repetition at 14-44 years old has increased from 6.77 million in the fifth census to 18.51 million in the sixth census. Finally, according to the adjusted four rounds of young aged census data, the paper recalculates the birth numbers, sex ratios and total fertility rates from 1990 to 2010, and it further indicates that, in the past, those three indexes were all deviated because of underreporting. China's total fertility rate from 2005 to 2010 is between 1.6 and 1.7.