上海市养老机构空间可达性研究

Study on the Spatial Accessibility of Shanghai Elderly Care Institutions

目前,中国大城市的养老机构发展迅速,但供需结构不平衡的问题十分突出。文章基于2016年上海市各街道(镇)户籍老年人口数和同期养老机构数据,运用GIS空间分析技术采用不同的空间距离对养老机构可达性进行测算。研究结果表明:(1)上海市养老机构在中心城区高度集中,郊区分散;中心城区养老机构的平均规模最小,近郊区最大。床位在200张以上的养老机构全部分布在内环线以外。(2)上海市各街道(镇)老年人口重心到养老机构的平均最近距离为1.14千米,平均一般距离为27.08千米,平均最远距离为67.06千米。(3)上海市养老机构空间可达性存在显著空间差异,中心城区空间可达性最高,近郊区其次,远郊区最差。(4)上海市养老机构床位数尚未满足户籍老年人口需求,中心城区缺额3.6万张,近郊区和远郊区分别多出0.4万张和0.2万张。因此,上海市在未来的养老机构布局中需要在中心城区新增微型养老机构,同时郊区养老机构应提高服务质量。

At present, elderly care institutions have developed rapidly in China's big cities, but the problem of the imbalance between supply and demand is very prominent. Based on the data of the elderly population in Shanghai resident districts or towns and the data of the elderly care institutions in 2016, this paper uses GIS spatial analysis technology to calculate the accessibility and convenience of elderly care institutions with different spatial distances. The research shows that:(1)these institutions in Shanghai are highly concentrated in the central urban area and scattered in suburbs; the average size of institutions in the central urban area is the smallest and suburban areas are the largest. The institutions with 200 beds or more are all distributed outside the inner loop line.(2) In Shanghai, the average nearest distance between the center of street and a care institution is 1.14 km, and the average distance is 27.08 km, and the average longest distance is67.06 km.(3) There are significant spatial differences among the spatial accessibility of Shanghai's elderly care institutions, and the highest spatial accessibility is in the central urban area, which is followed by suburbs, and the worst is in the far outskirts.(4) The number of beds in the institutions in Shanghai has not yet met household needs of the elderly population, which the central urban area has a shortage of 36 thousand beds, and suburban areas and outer suburbs oversupply 4 thousand and 2 thousand beds respectively. Therefore, Shanghai needs to add more elderly care institutions in the central urban area in the future layout. Meanwhile, it may be appropriate to increase institutions to meet the needs of micro intervention.