基于ARIMA模型对我国服务价格指数的预测

Forcast on Service Price Index of China by ARIMA Model

基于ARIMA模型对2005年1月至2017年10月的我国服务价格指数月度数据进行预测分析．利用对统计数据的变化趋势及季节性进行验证结果表明该模型合理、有效．运用模型对2017年11月至2018年6月份的我国服务价格指数进行了预测，预测值与实际值的估计误差控制在有效范围内，预测效果比较理想，预测结果为到2018年上半年我国服务价格指数涨幅在3．5％左右，全国居民消费价格指数维持于2％左右，2018上半年出现严重通胀的可能性较小．

Based on ARIMA model to predict and analyse the monthly data of China＇s service price index from January 2005 to October 2017. The results show that the model is reasonable and effective. Using the model to predict the service price index of China which from November 2017 to June 2018, and the estimated error between the actual and estimated values are controlled within the effective range, prediction effect is more ideal, predicted results are that to the first half of 2018 China＇s price index to rise around 3.5%, the national consumer price index to maintain at around 2%, less likely to be severe inflation during the first half of 2018.