基于随机模拟评价的城市道路应急疏散能力研究

Emergency Evacuation Capacity Assessment of Urban Road Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

基于经典综合评价理论和Monte-Carlo模拟技术，以速度、时间负荷裕度、空间负荷裕度、畅通可靠度、行程时间可靠度等5个因素作为评价指标，建立了城市道路应急疏散能力随机模拟综合评价模型．该算法通过自主优势量矩阵和优势权向量计算，利用随机模拟技术求解被评价对象之间优劣关系的优胜度矩阵，从而得到被评价对象的综合评价向量．研究表明，在评价结果一致的前提下以优胜度矩阵形式表示的评价结果比其他常规方法，提供的信息更加丰富，充分反映了受多种因素综合影响的城市道路应急疏散能力评价的客观实际情况，研究结果可为城市道路应急疏散能力安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据．

Based on the classical comprehensive evaluation theories and Monte-Carlo simulation, the comprehensive assessment model of the emergency evacuation capacity of urban road based on stochastic simulation was presented in terms of five indices including speed, the occupancy of time and space, the reliability of travel time and the reliability of free-flowing. The self-determination advantage matrix and dominant weight vector were calculated in the comprehensive evaluation process, and then the superiority matrix reflecting the relation between the superiority and inferiority of the objects being evaluated was simulated. Then, the comprehensive evaluation vectors of all the objects to be evaluated were given. The application results showed that the assessment expressed by the superiority matrix can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods, which could reflect practical conditions of the emergency evacuation capacity of urban road. The comprehensive assessment results provide an important decision-making basis for the safe operation and upgrading of the emergency evacuation capacity of urban road in this area.