昆明市盘龙区山洪灾害分析评价方法

Analysis and Evaluation of Mountain Flood Disaster in Panlong District of Kunming City

山洪灾害分析评价是山洪灾害群防群治的基础,以昆明市盘龙区为例,选择沿河村落所在小流域为分析对象,推求设计暴雨与设计洪水、评估现状防洪能力、采用试算法推求了三种不同土壤湿度条件下的预警雨量,在此基础上分析了产汇流模型模拟误差与预警雨量误差的对应关系,获得盘龙区重点山洪村防洪能力评价及预警雨量。分析结果表明,推求的预警雨量可以满足当地山洪预警雨量发布的需求,研究成果可为当地山洪监测预警系统提供参考。

The analysis and evaluation of mountain flood disaster is the basic work for flood prevention and control.This paper takes Panlong District of Kunming as an example,and chooses the small watershed along the river as the object of analysis,and calculates the design rainstorm and design flood as well as evaluates the current flood control capacity.And then the trial method is used to estimate the warning rainfall under three different soil moisture conditions.On this basis,the corresponding relationship between the simulated error of the runoff yield and concentration model and the warning rainfall error is analyzed.Through the above research,the flood control capacity and warning rainfall of the key mountain flood village in Panlong District are obtained.The analysis shows that the warning rainfall obtained by the runoff yield and concentration model in the local manual can meet the demand of local warning rainfall.The research results can provide reference for local mountain flood disaster monitoring and warning system.