基于风险区划的我国森林火灾险费率厘定研究

The Estimates of Forest Fire Insurance Rates Based on Forest Fire Risk Zoning in China

森林保险制度作为森林风险分散的重要工具,受到很多国家的重视。本文以森林火灾为例,首先介绍风险区划的必要性、可行性、森林火灾区划方法以及费率厘定相关概念和方法;然后,采用基于熵权的TOPSIS法对全国各省份进行风险区划研究,计算各风险区历年森林火灾受灾率,对各风险区分别进行分布拟合,利用K-S检验法进行检验,选择最优分布;最后,在95%置信度下厘定森林火灾险纯费率的区间费率。结果表明我国不同区域之间风险差异较大,森林火灾风险存在两级分化现象。

As an important tool for dispersing forest risks, forest insurance system has been paid much attention by many countries. In this paper, the necessity, feasibility of risk zoning and essential principles and concepts of premium making are introduced firstly; then the entropy weighted TOPSIS method was adopted to study the risk zoning, the forest fire disaster rates in each risk area over the years were calculated, distribution fitting method was carried out for each risk area, K-S test was used to select the optimal fitted distribution; finally, the confidence interval of pure rate of forest fire insurance is determined under the95% confidence level. The results show that the risk varies greatly among different regions in China, and there exists a risk polarization.