FPSO油气泄漏燃爆连锁风险量化分析与屏障控制研究

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND SAFETY BARRIER CONTROL FOR FPSO SUBJECTED TO OIL & GAS LEAKAGE AND DEFLAGRATION CHAIN HAZARDS

为量化评估FPSO油气泄漏、燃爆连锁风险,采用因果图法分析风险致因因素的关联性和人员伤亡事故模式及风险路径,结合贝叶斯网络模型计算FPSO油气泄漏、燃爆事故频率,从安全屏障角度提出风险控制策略并进行安全屏障失效分析。结果表明:因果图可分析FPSO泄漏油气燃爆风险演化过程及事故发生路径;FPSO发生小型、中型和重大油气燃爆事故频率分别为0.074 79,0.083 74,和0.003 594 a/船,油气泄漏、燃爆连锁风险高;基于控制措施的安全屏障模型是降低风险的保障;屏障失效形式包括活动失效和潜伏失效,其通过事故树中的或门与对应顶上事件相连接,失效形式越多,危害越大。

A cause-effect diagram is adopted to analyze the inner logic of risk contributing factors and accident patterns of casualty and risk paths of fatal accidents in order to make quantitative risk assessment for FPSO subjected to oil & gas leakage and deflagration chain hazards. Then the paper utilizes the Bayesian network model to calculate the frequency of FPSO oil & gas leakage and deflagration accidents. Safety barriers are proposed as control measures for FPSO risk and its failure mode is analyzed. The results show that causality diagram is practical to forecast FPSO oil & gas deflagration risk evolution and accident route. The frequency of minor,significant and major oil & gas deflagration accidents of FPSO is0. 07479,0. 08374 and 0. 003594 respectively,which shows that FPSO is under great deflagration risk. The control measures based on safety barriers models can efficiently minimize FPSO oil & gas deflagration risk. Active and potential failure both will disable safety barriers and each failure mode associates with the top event through AND gates. The more the failure modes are,the greater the damage is.