2018年俄罗斯经济社会发展展望

Prospects for the Economic and Social Development of Russia in 2018

2018年将是俄罗斯经济社会发展中极为关键的一年。在刚刚过去的一年中,俄罗斯经济在西方国家加大制裁的严峻背景下砥砺前行,出现了缓慢复苏。2018年俄罗斯经济社会面临全球经济风险带来的挑战、特朗普减税的负面效应、西方国家经济制裁的压力以及自身经济短板带来的风险。不过其发展也有诸多有利因素,包括中俄关系迎来新的发展机遇;俄罗斯具备较强抗风险能力;俄罗斯处理国际关系技巧高超。展望俄罗斯经济社会发展仍面临较严峻的形势,加大引进外国对俄直接投资和减少资本外流是最为关键的因素。受军事对抗和经济制裁等多重因素共同作用,2018年俄罗斯经济可能出现微弱增长,甚至重现负增长局面;社会形势基本可以保持稳定局面,但仍需继续改善民生和投资环境,扭转人口下降局面成为重要课题。

2018 will bea crucial year for the economic and social development of Russia. In the past year, the Russian economy hasstepped up in the severe background of western countries＇ increased sanctions, and there has beena slow recovery. In 2018, the Russianeconomic society will face the challenges posed by global economic risks, the negative effect of Trump＇s tax reduction, the pressure oneconomic sanctions from the West and the risks brought by the short board of its own economy. However, its development also has manyfavorable factors, including new development opportunities for Sino-Russian relations,the strong anti-risk ability of Russia,and Russia＇shigh skill in dealing with international relations. Looking forward to Russia＇s economic and social development, it is still facinga grimsituation. Increasing foreign direct investment in Russia and reducing capital outflow are the most critical factors. Because of the jointeffect of multiple factors, such as military confrontation and economic sanctions, the Russian economy may appear weak growth and evenfall back into negative growth situation again in 2018. The social situation may maintain basic stability, but there is still need to improvepeople＇s livelihood and investment environment. To reverse the situation of population decline has become an important issue.