2006—2015年湖北省个人现金卫生支出分析与趋势预测

Prediction of out-of-pocket payment in Hubei(2006-2015)

目的分析2006—2015年湖北省个人现金卫生支出比重及其变化趋势,为政策制定提供参考。方法运用来源法测算湖北省卫生总费用情况;线性回归模型预测2016—2018年卫生总费用筹资结构。结果湖北省个人现金卫生支出比重近些年一直维持在30.00%以上;农村居民疾病经济负担高于城镇居民;模型预测得到"十三五"期间湖北个人现金卫生支出比重有望降至28.00%以下。结论近几年若要实现个人卫生支出降低到28.00%以下的目标,湖北省必须尽快采取相应措施控制个人卫生支出的比重。

Objective To analysis the proportion and changes of out-of-pocket payment（ OOP） from 2006 to 2015 in Hubei,and provide reference for policy making. Methods Financing sources was used to estimate total expenditure on health,and linear regression model was used to predict the financing proportion of total expenditure on health in the following three years. Results The proportion of OOP was above 30. 00% in Hubei from 2006 to 2015. The economic burden of rural residents was higher than urban residents. The proportion of OOP in Hubei may be decreased below 28. 00% during the13 th Five-Year period by prediction.Conclusion There would be a long way to go before Hubei achieve the target that OOP was reduced to less than 28. 00%. Measures should be taken to control the proportion of OOP.