卤代烃VOCs污染场地风险评价中的不确定性研究

Uncertainty in risk assessment of volatile halogenated hydrocarbon sites

本文以上海市某典型卤代烃工厂为例,运用可传递参数差异的蒙特卡洛模拟法,借助Crystal Ball工具软件对场地风险评估中的参数敏感性进行了量化分析。从概率风险的角度探究了参数不确定性对风险评价水平的影响,从而指导场地风险管理和修复行动。

Uncertainty of risk assessment of volatile halogenated hydrocarbon contaminated is based on a typical plant in Shanghai city. Monte Carlo simulation method can transfer parameter difference. With the help of CrystalBall tool, the parameter sensitivity of site risk assessment is quantifed. From the perspective of probability risk, the infuence of parameter uncertainty on Risk Assessment is explored to guide the management of site risk and repair action.