2017年玉米市场形势分析与2018年展望

China's Maize Market in 2017 and Its Outlook for 2018

2017年,全球玉米供求形势依然较为宽松,国际价格低位徘徊。同期,中国玉米播种面积继续调减,产量继续下降;国内玉米价格震荡回升,新产玉米收购价格明显高于上年;玉米消费需求明显增长,供求关系由阶段性供大于求向产需平衡转变;国内外价格基本接轨,玉米及其替代品进口总体减少。预计2018年国内玉米面积将趋于稳定,甚至可能恢复性增长;国内玉米价格重心将逐步抬升,年平均价格有望高于上年;玉米消费需求将继续增长,再创历史新高;国内外玉米价差难以明显缩小,玉米及其替代品进口压力将加大。

In 2017, global maize supplyremained enough, and international maize market price maintained low. Over the same period, China＇s maize planting area and total production both decreased continually; domestic maize market price waved to recover from low levels, and purchasing price of maize produced in2017 was significantly higher than the previous year; maize consumption demand increased obviously, and the maize supply-demand relationship was changing to roughly balance from periodic oversupply; domestic price was nearly in the line with international price, so imports of maize and its alternatives somewhat reduced. Looking forward to 2018, planting area of China＇s maize will be stable, or might even return growth; domestic maize price will rise gradually, and annual average price will be higher than previous year; domestic consumption demand will further increase, and perhaps reach new historical peak; price gap between domestic and imported maize will be enlarging, so the pressure ofChina＇s imports ofmaize and its alternatives will increase.