世界和中国肉类消费及展望

Meat Consumption and Outlook in the World and China

20世纪90年代以来,世界肉类消费量迅猛增长,中国占世界肉类消费总量的近1/3,肉类贸易也由净出口转为净进口。对世界和中国肉类消费现状进行了详细论述,并基于以往研究对肉类消费的研究框架、影响因素以及未来预测结果进行了全方位、多层次的综述。总结发现,第一,肉类消费受多重因素影响,主要包括价格、收入、地区差异、社会发展状况、差异化的饮食模式和观念、家庭特征等因素,其中,消费者的偏好以及产品差异性尤其是质量差异的影响越来越重要;第二,全球肉类消费的收入弹性和条件支出弹性的均值分别为0.48和1.02,中国为0.53和1.06,世界肉类需求的非补偿和补偿价格弹性的均值分别为-0.86和-0.69,中国的为-0.79和-0.76;第三,未来世界和中国肉类消费将呈现进一步增长趋势,预计2025年世界肉类消费总量将达30 000万t以上,中国将达到6 510万~10 010万t。

Global meat consumption has been growing rapidly since the 1990s. China＇s meat consumption accounted for approximately one-third of the world＇s total meat consumption and became a net meat importer. Based on a large number of studies, this paper reviewed and summarized the progress of meat consumption in the world and China, including research framework, influencing factors and outlook. We arrived at some conclusions. Firstly, the influencing factors of meat consumption were price, income, regional difference, social development level, different dietary patterns and family characteristics. And the role of consumer preferences and product difference especially quality difference would become more and more important. Secondly, the mean values for global income elasticity and conditional expenditure elasticity were 0.48 and 1.02, respectively and those of China＇s were 0.53 and 1.06, respectively. The mean values for global uncompensated and compensated price elasticity were -0.86 and -0.69, respectively and those of China＇s were -0.79 and -0.76, respectively. Thirdly, global and Chinese meat consumption will continue to grow. The world＇s total meat consumption will reach more than 300 million tons in 2025, and that of China＇s will reach around 65.1 million tons and 100.1 milliontons.