边境贸易地区土地利用变化驱动力演变研究

Driving force evolution of land use change in a border trade area of China

土地利用变化驱动力分析对于揭示区域土地利用变化机制、未来土地利用规划具有重要意义。本文以绥芬河为典型案例,利用典型相关分析法与二元Logistic回归模型,从时间和空间耦合角度分析边境贸易快速发展下的土地利用变化驱动演变情况。研究结果表明,边境贸易发展早期建设用地主要解释因素为固定资产投资,后期由于对外贸易结构变化,工业生产总值占主导作用;2000年之前自然地理因子为土地利用变化驱动的主要限制因素,之后则是离对外贸易区距离、离边境线距离等因子和社会经济因子的作用逐渐加强。进行边境城市绥芬河市土地利用变化驱动分析,既能丰富边境城市研究,也能为当地可持续发展提供参考和借鉴。

Analyses of land use change driving force is of great significance to understanding the mechanisms of land use change and land use planning. The rapid development of border trade has changed land use structure in border areas. Therefore, the study of driving forces of land use change under the development of border trade becomes increasingly important. We focused on Suifenhe city as a typical case and used landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2011 and 2016, and DEM data and socio-economic statistics. Canonical correlation analysis and a binary logistic regression model were used to analyze the evolution of land use change under rapid development of border trade from two aspects： time macro and spatial microcosmic. We found that the main explanatory variables of cultivated land area change are agricultural total output in the early period and total fixed assets investment and gross national product in the later period. The explanatory variables of forest area changed from the previous period to imports and the latter to exports and international tourist numbers. During the early period of border trade development the main explanatory factor of built-up land is gross fixed asset formation, late due to changes in border trade structure; gross industrial production accounted for this leading role. Topographic conditions have always been an important factor limiting land use pattern in Suifenhe. After 2000 and the establishment of the China-Russia Sui-Bo inter-city trade zone, the border economic cooperation zone and the Suifenhe Comprehensive Bonded Zone have attracted built-up land and impacted land use patterns. The analysis of land use change in Suifenhe enriches research into border cities and provides consultation and suggestions for local sustainable development.