埃尔多安时代土耳其外交的转型及其限度

The Transition of Turkish Diplomacy and Its Limitation in the Age of Erdogan

以2002年、2011年和2015年为界,土耳其外交上演了拾阶而上式转型,力度很大,影响深远。当下的土耳其将中东视为战略资产而非负担,加速了外交向中东回归的步伐。与此同时,土耳其与西方国家关系尤其是土美关系在某种意义上已进入质变期,即由先前土耳其对美国的依从关系转变为真正独立的外交,土美关系由此遭遇的挫折短期内难以修复。国内军政关系和阶级基础的变化、经济境况的改善、土耳其与美国等西方国家利益的直接冲撞,以及中东变局引致的持续地区动荡,共同促成了土耳其的外交转型。当下,土耳其外交转型的机遇与风险同在。土耳其国内政局的两极分化及土耳其传统外交的惯性,决定了其转型的有限性和长期性。土耳其外交的转型将是一个长期和不断反复的过程,而2017~2018年则成为土耳其外交转型史上的关键性时间段。

Marked in 2002,2011 and 2015 respectively,Turkey＇s diplomacy began a rapid transformation,with unprecedented strength and influences. Currently,Turkey regards the Middle East as a strategic asset rather than a burden,and has accelerated the pace of the return of foreign policy to the Middle East. In a sense,the relationship between Turkey and the West has entered a qualitative changing period,in particularly,the relationship between Turkey and the United States is transforming from previous Turkish compliance with the United States to truly independent diplomacy. The setbacks suffered by the relations between Turkey and the United States are hard to be repaired in the short term. The direct international collision with the interests of the United States and the West as well as the volatile turmoil in the Middle East,turkish politicians＇ vision and strategic decisions based on these changes,jointly facilitated the transformation of Turkey＇s diplomacy,in which opportunities and risks exist at the same time. Meanwhile, the polarization of Turkey＇s domestic political situation and the role of Turkey＇s traditional diplomacy determine its limited and long-term transformation. The transformation of Turkey ＇s diplomacy will be a long and continuous process. It is worth noting that the year 2017-2018 will be a critical time in the history of Turkey＇s foreign policy transformation.