煤矿安全生产事故统计分析及预测研究

Statistical analysis and prediction of coal mine production safety accidents

为了有效减少煤矿安全生产事故和指导国家煤矿事故控制政策的制定实施,对2007-2016年777起煤矿事故发生规律(时间分布、地域分布、事故等级)进行了综合分析,并结合三次指数平滑预测模型和交叉验证法对2017-2019年煤矿事故发生起数进行了预测。分析表明,2007年是煤矿事故发生最多的一年,2007-2009年呈断崖式下降,2010年有小幅度上升趋势,之后逐年下降;贵州、湖南等地质条件不稳定的省市是煤矿事故防控的重点;一般事故最多,其次是较大事故和重大事故;三次指数平滑法预测表明,2017-2019年事故发生起数分别为13、6、0起,而交叉验证法预测值分别为11、2、0起。对煤矿事故规律的研究和事故起数的预测,对制定完善的安全管理措施和减少煤矿事故的发生具有重要意义。

In order to effectively reduce the amount of accidents in coal mine production and guide the formulation and implementation of the national policy for coal mine accident control,the laws of 777 coal mine accidents of 2007-2016 in their time distribution,geographical distribution and accident level are analyzed comprehensively,and the third index smoothing prediction model and the cross validation are used to forecast the number of coal mine accidents in 2017-2020. The analysis indicates that the year of 2007 was the most serious year of the coal mine accident,and the accident number rapid declined in the period of 2007-2009,with a slight upward trend in 2010,and then declined year by year; Guizhou,Hunan and other cities with geological conditions were the major targets for coal mine accident prevention and control. The forecast using the third index smoothing prediction model shows that the accident numbers of 2017,2018 and 2019 are 13,6,0,respectively,while the cross validation method gives the resuts of 11,2,and 0. It is of great significance to improve the safety management measures and reduce the occurrence of coal accidents by studying the law of coal mine accidents and the prediction of the number of accidents.