天津市2007-2015年急性心肌梗死死亡发病比变化趋势分析

Trend on mortality/incidence ratio of acute myocardial infarction in Tianjin from 2007 to 2015

目的 分析2007-2015年天津市急性心肌梗死（AMI）死亡发病比的变化规律。方法 收集2007-2015年天津市AMI的发病监测数据和死因登记数据，计算≥ 35岁人群分性别的AMI发病率及死亡率，用指数曲线拟合标化发病率和标化死亡率的变化趋势，再计算各年AMI的死亡发病比，并用Joinpoint软件对AMI死亡发病比进行敏感性分析。结果 除2007、2010、2014和2015年AMI死亡发病比〈1.00以外，其余年份死亡发病比均〉1.00。2007-2015年女性AMI死亡发病比为0.90~1.80，男性死亡发病比为0.80~1.40，合计死亡发病比为0.80~1.60。结论 2007-2015年天津市AMI死亡发病比的变化相对平稳，但AMI发病监测系统可能存在一定漏报，〉75岁年龄组AMI死亡发病比〉1.00，提示该年龄人群AMI发病漏报明显。

Objective To explore the variation for mortality/incidence （MI） ratio on acute myocardial infarction （AMI） in Tianjin from 2007 to 2015. Methods Data from both disease and death surveillance systems on AMI in Tianjin from 2007 to 2015, were collected. Incidence and mortality for AMI of people over 35 years old were calculated and fitted by using the exponential model. Annual MI ratios by gender and different age groups were calculated. Join-point regression was used for sensitivity analysis of the ratio. Results Other than 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015, the ratios in rest of the years were all bigger than one. From 2007 to 2015, the ratios were ranging from 0.80 to 1.60, with 0.90 to 1.80 for females, and 0.80 to 1.40 for males, respectively. Conclusion The MI ratio on AMI changed relatively stable in Tianjin from 2007 to 2015, but the AMI incidence data in Tianjin seemed underreported, especially for people over 75 years old, indicating that some elderly AMI cases were not reported to the disease surveillance system.