基于贝叶斯理论的地下水水质评价模型及应用

Groundwater Quality Evaluation Model Based on Bayesian Theory and Its Application

贝叶斯理论是一种基于概率的数学统计方法,将贝叶斯理论引入地下水水质评价体系,建立贝叶斯地下水水质评价模型,并选取独山子区至沙湾县区域共8组水质数据,进行实例应用。同时使用单因子评价法、F值法、模糊综合评价法与之评价结果进行对比分析,以验证该模型评价结果的准确性。结果表明,贝叶斯模型评价结果与模糊综合法结果相近,且计算过程更加简单,值得进一步应用与验证。

Bayesian theory is a mathematical statistical method based on probability. In this paper, the Bayesian theory is introduced into the groundwater quality assessment system to establish Bayesian groundwater quality evaluation model. A total of 8 water quality data of the zone from Dushanzi to Shawan counties are selected for example application. At the same time, the evaluation result of Bayesian model is compared with those of the single factor evaluation method, the F value method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to verify its accuracy. The results show that the evaluation results of Bayesian model are similar to those of the fuzzy comprehensive method, and the calculation process is simpler. So it is worthy of further application and verification.