摘要
在当今水资源供需矛盾十分尖锐的背景下,研究水资源承载力有多大并寻找水资源与经济社会发展的平衡点成为焦点。选取榆林市为研究对象,对可供水量和需水量进行预测进而分析得到2020年、2030年可承载的最大经济规模分别为5 528、11 924亿元、最大人口规模分别为603、744万人。在此基础之上构建多目标优化模型对2020年、2030年产业结构进行优化。2020年、2030年榆林市国民经济总量分别为4 860、10 659亿元,总用水量分别为114 200、168 340万m3,产业结构比重分别为4.6∶53.7∶41.7、3.6∶47.9∶48.5。水资源能够满足用水要求。
Under the background of the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, the current research focus will be the ultimate carrying capacity of water resources and the equilibrium point between economic development and water resources, In this study, Yulin City is selected as the research object. Through the analysis of water supply and demand, it is forecasted that the maximum economic scale that can be carried for the year of 2020 and 2030 is 552.8 billion yuan and 1 924.4 billion Yuan, respectively. And the maximum population size is 6.03 million in 2020 and 7.44 million in 2030. Based on it, a multi-objective optimization model is constructed to optimize the industrial structure in 2020 and 2030. The total national economic output and total water consumption of Yulin City will be 486 billion yuan and 1 142 million m3 in 2020 and 10 659 billion yuan and 168.34 million m3 in 2030. The proportion of industrial structure will be 4.6 ： 53.7 ： 41.7 and 3.6 ： 47.9 ： 48.5, respectively, in 2020 and 2030 respectively. The water resources can meet water requirements.
作者
葛杰
张鑫
GE Jie;ZHANG Xin(College of Water Resource and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling 721100, Shaanxi Province, China)
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2018年第4期99-104,共6页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
现代农业节水技术模式与高效用水物联网系统(2016KTZDNY-01-01)
国家高新技术研究发展计划("863计划")项目(14110209)
中央高校基本科研业务费科研创新重点项目(Z109021202)
关键词
水资源承载力
最大经济规模
最大人口规模
产业结构
榆林市
water resources carrying capacity
maximum economic scale
maximum population size
industrial structure
Yulin City
