基于FTA与PCA的城市平面交叉口交通冲突因素分析

Traffic Conflict Factors Analysis of Urban Intersection based on FTA and PCA

为了分析城市平面交叉口交通冲突产生的致因因素,采用事故树分析法探寻交通冲突的可能致因因素,将实地调研所获取的西安市15个平面交叉口的487个交通冲突样本按照交通冲突产生的原因进行归类,运用主成分分析法进行数据分析,分析结果表明：机-机不按规定让行、车辆的避险不当、非机动车及行人过失、机动车闯红灯和机动车违规变道、超车及调头等是导致交叉口交通冲突的主要影响因素。规避交叉口的以上违章及不当行为有助于降低严重冲突的风险。针对以上影响因素及分析结果,提出了相应的建议和措施。

In order to analyze the factors of traffic conflicts on the urban intersections, this paper uses the fault tree analysis method to expound the possible causes of the traffic conflicts. The 487 samples of traffic conflict data from the fifteen intersections in Xi＇an are classified according to the causes of traffic conflicts and analyzed by principal component analysis. The results show that the main factors leading to the traffic conflicts on intersections are drivers not giving way according to the regulations, motor vehicle drivers＂ improper behaviors of hazards avoiding, non motorized drivers and pedestrians who make mistakes when crossing the road illegally, motor vehicle drivers＂ running red lights, improper lane changing, overtaking and turning around etc. That is to say, avoiding the above behaviors of traffic violations at the intersections can help reduce the risk of serious traffic conflicts. Based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions and measures.