京津冀协同发展背景下能源需求预测与政策影响研究

Forecast of energy demand and policy impact under the background of the coordinated development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

文中基于系统动力学,构建了京津冀能源系统仿真模型,探索2020年能源消费量,并通过情景分析法,模拟不同能源政策制定对京津冀能源消费和环境的影响。研究表明:京津冀能源消费整体呈上升趋势,2020年预计将达64931.1万t标准煤;GDP增长会同时带动能源消费、SO_2和CO_2排放量的增长,但CO_2排放量的增长幅度远大于SO_2排放量的增长幅度。另外,GDP增长对碳排放强度的抑制作用逐渐减弱;第二产业结构调整对能源消费的抑制作用逐渐减弱,并且其能有效降低SO_2和CO_2排放量,但对碳排放强度没有显著影响;技术进步对能源消费的促进作用逐渐减弱,对SO_2和CO_2排放量、碳排放强度的抑制作用逐渐增强,并且其对环境污染物的抑制作用远大于对能源消费的促进作用。

The research constructed a simulation model of based on system dynamics mainly to explore the total energy energy system for Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei region consumption in 2020. Through scenario analysis, it also simulated the influence of different energy policies on energy consumption and environment. The resuhs show that ： The total energy consumption of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei regionn will perform upward trend and be expected to reach 64931.1 million tons of standard coal in 2020. GDP growth will drive the growth of energy consumption and the emissions of SO2 and CO2, but the growth rate of CO2 emissions is greater than SO2 emis- sions. Also, the inhibitory effect of GDP growth on carbon emission intensity is gradually decreased. The adjust- ment of second industrial structure has inhibitory effect on energy consumption and the effect is gradually weak- ened. In addition, it can effectively reduce the emissions of SO2 and CO2, but has no significant impact on car- bon emission intensity. The promotion effect of technological progress on energy consumption is gradually weak- ened. However, the inhibitory effect of technical progress on emission of SO2 and CO2 is gradually increasing and the inhibitory effect on environmental pollutants is greater than the promotion of energy consumption.