缅甸政治转型与吴登盛政府对华政策调整

Myanmar's Political Transition and the Adjustments of U Thein Sein Administration's Policies towards China

缅甸在2010—2011年间发生了政治转型,接替军人执政的吴登盛政府在初期较大幅度地调整了对华政策,但是这种调整是有限度的,缅甸并没有完全倒向西方国家,而是继续和中国保持较为密切的政治接触。实证分析说明,政治制度和意识形态并不是影响吴登盛政府对外政策的关键因素,政权的合法性、基于地缘政治的国家安全、经济发展的需求是导致2011—2016年间中缅关系经历波动期、回摆期和稳定期的根本原因。这三方面因素也是后来民盟政府处理对华关系时的主要考量。

During 2010-2011,Myanmar started its political transition.The U Thein Sein Administration has made obvious policy adjustments towards China after it replaced the Military government.However,such adjustments were limited,as Myanmar hasn't totally lean to the West,but keeping relatively closer political contact with China.Empirical analysis shows that political institution and ideology are not the key reasons leading to such adjustments?China-Myanmar relations had undergone fluctuation,oscillation and stability during 2011-2016,the root causes of which are the legality of political power,national security based on geopolitics and economic development demands of Myanmar people.Moreover,those three factors remain the primary considerations of the NLD Government when it handling relations with China.