基于多米诺骨牌的土坝稳定性分析方法与概率关系

The Method and probability analysis of the earth dam stability based on bone Naomi card

为了详细剖析土坝失稳的基础原因与过程,提出一种基于结构失稳和渗流失稳的多米诺骨牌分析模型,并对其倒塌模式进行了分析,对土坝失稳的多米诺骨牌模型进行了概率分析,并以计算实例进行了计算,得到了其土坝失稳的概率结果,同时得出了事件发生概率不断增大的普适性结论。因此,必须重视最下层的基础事件的防护,才能保证土坝的稳定性。

For a detailed analysis of the dam foundation failure reason,a kind of structural instability and seepage analysis model of instability of bony plates based on Naom is put forward,and the collapse mode is analyzed,probability analysis is taken on earth dam based on bone models of Naomi brand,and a calculation example is calculated for the failure probability of the dam,the stability of results was obtained,and the occurrence probability of increasing the universality of the conclusion,therefore,we must pay attention to the protection of the lower base event,in order to ensure the stability of earth dam.