加权组合模型预测在河北省人口数量预测中的应用

Application of weighted c Combination model in population prediction of Hebei province

目的预测2015—2020年河北省人口数据,为制定"河北省十三五医疗卫生服务体系规划"提供有效依据。方法以《河北省经济统计年鉴(2015)》中2005—2014年河北省人口数为基础,分别采用平均自然增长率法、指数平滑法、二次回归模型法、幂函数模型法、灰色预测模型GM(1.1)法,对河北省2015—2020年人口总数进行预测,并以拟合人口数与实际人口数绝对误差方差的倒数为权重系数,采用加权组合模型预测全省人口数量。结果河北省2005年—2014年人口呈增长趋势,自然增长率在4.98‰~6.81‰之间,平均增长率为6.36‰。5种方法预测2020年河北省人口数约在7 400~7 800万之间,平均相对误差在0.331%~0.910%之间;加权组合模型预测2020年河北省人口总数约为7 745.36万,预测的平均相对误差为0.336%;加权组合模型法预测各市人口之和与全省实际人口和预测人口差异的平均相对误差分别为0.209%和0.066%。结论加权组合模型法考虑到了预测误差大小和预测模型人口数量过高或过低的问题,总人口的预测结果与各市人口预测结果符合程度最高,适用于河北省的人口预测。

Objective To predict the population of Hebei province from 2015 to 2020, and to provide effective basis for the formulation of the ＇ 13th five - year medical service plan of Hebei＇. Methods Based on the population of Hebei province from 2005 to 2014, the average natural growth rate method, exponential smoothing model, quadratic regression model, power function model and gray prediction Model GM（ 1,1 ） were used to predict the population of Hebei province in 2015 -2020; Then calculated the differences of actual and predict values of every method and the variance of differ- ences respectively, and used the reciprocal of variance as the weight coefficient to weight the predicted value of 5 meth- ods. Results The population of Hebei province were increased from 2005 to 2014, the natural growth rate was between 4. 98%0 and 6. 81%o, and the average growth rate was 6. 36%0. The predict population in 2020 of Hebei province by 5 methods were 74 -78 millions, and the average relative error is between 0. 331% and 0. 910% ; The predict population in 2020 by weighted combination model was 77. 45 millions, the average relative error was 0. 336% , and the average relative errors of the difference between sum population of every cities and total population of Hebei province were 0. 206% and 0. 066% respectively. Conclusion The weighted combination model takes into account the problem ofpredict error and overestimate or underestimate during forecasting. The predict value of the total population is more appreciative to the sum of predicted population of every cities. Weighted combination model is suitable for population forecast in Hebei province.