基于VAR模型的北京市雾霾与机动车污染关系研究

A study on relationship between haze and pollution caused by vehicle in Beijing based on VAR model

为研究北京市机动车污染与雾霾之间的动态关系,利用2000—2015年的有关数据,在建立VAR模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解,得到人均机动车保有量、二氧化氮和一氧化碳年均浓度对雾霾影响的轨迹特征以及贡献率。研究结果表明,二氧化氮、一氧化碳年均浓度和人均机动车保有量对雾霾存在稳定的正向效应;机动车污染对雾霾的贡献率为51.4%,其中人均机动车保有量对雾霾的贡献率为13%,机动车尾气排放贡献率为38.4%。在整个分析期内,前5期人均机动车保有量对雾霾的影响作用较大,第5期以后二氧化氮是影响雾霾的主要因素。

The corresponding data from 2000 to 2015 are utilized to study the dynamic relationship between the pollution caused by vehicle and haze happened in Beijing. A VAR model is established at first,and then the trajectory characteristics and the contribution rate of the influences of vehicle occupancy number per capita,annual average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide on haze in Beijing are obtained by using the impulse response function and variance decomposition. The result suggests that the vehicle occupancy number per capita,and the annual average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide have stable and positive effects on haze.Simultaneously,the contribution rate of pollution caused by vehicle to haze is 51. 4%,of which that of vehicle occupancy number per capita is 13% and that of the vehicle exhaust emission makes up the remaining 38. 4%.During the all analysis periods,the effect of vehicle occupancy number per capita on haze is significant in the first five periods,and nitrogen dioxide is the main factor causing haze after the 5 th period.