西部地区产业结构与居民消费结构、经济增长的动态关系——基于甘肃省的实证分析

The study on the Dynamic Relationship of Industrial Structure and Consumption Structure,Economic Growth in Western Part of China——An Empirical Analysis of Gansu Province

文章以甘肃省1980—2014年的相关数据为研究对象,建立了向量自回归模型和向量误差修正模型,通过协整检验、格兰杰检验和方差分解,实证分析了产业结构与居民消费结构、经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:甘肃省产业结构与经济增长之间存在双向作用机制;居民消费结构对产业结构的影响显著,但居民消费结构与经济增长之间的因果关系不显著。

Based on the multivariable VAR and VEC model, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition and Johansen co-integration tests are used in this paper to analyze the dynamic relationship of industrial structure,consumption structure, and economic growth in Gansu Province during 1980-2014. It was found that there are two effective mechanisms between industrial structure and economic growth in Gansu. Consumption structure can accelerate the optimizing and upgrading of industrial structure. However, the reaction mechanism of economic growth to consumption structure is not significant.