北方草原区气候变化影响与适应

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation in Northern Grassland of China

针对我国北方草原区气候变化敏感脆弱,草原气候变化影响和适应研究薄弱,特别是在全民应对气候变化的行动中牧户适应能力和效率低下的问题,基于气象数据、树木年轮、问卷调研等数据,系统研究了区域气候变化趋势,区域、县域、牧户三个层面的气候变化脆弱性,以及牧户对气候变化的感知与适应行为。提出以下观点:北方草原区气候年际、年代际和世纪3个尺度"暖旱化"趋势增强;生态环境本底越好,其适应气候变化的能力越强;牧民对气候变化的感知存在传导途径与偏差。在此基础上,深刻阐释了"心理载畜率"内涵,从全新的视角剖析了当前草原放牧超载的原因,并面向不同管理层次提出了政策性建议。

The research which is focused on the impact of climate change and adaptation is weak,especially the herder＇s adaptability and inefficiency in dealing with climate change.The regional climate trends,climate change vulnerability at region,county and herder level,and the herder＇s perception and adaptation to climate changes were studied based on data of meteorology,tree rings and questionnaire survey.The viewpoints were as follows：warm-dying trend has grown stronger in inter-annual,inter-decadal and century scales;The better ecological environment background,the more ability to adapt to climate change.There are pathways and deviation for herder＇s perception to climate change.Thus,the concept of herders＇ desirable stocking rate was proposed to explain the reason of overgrazing from a new perspective,and a series of policy suggestions were proposed to deal with climate change.