杠杆演化与再平衡之路

The Leverage Cycle and Rebalancing

本文结合三张资产负债表来衡量金融杠杆、实体杠杆以及总杠杆三者的关系。自2007年以来,我国经历了四轮加杠杆的历史。本文认为,单一货币政策不足以控制有害的信贷周期并且防止过度杠杆化。中国经济能有较大空间维持快速增长,通过合理政策工具资产端和负债同时管理下可以再平衡成功,同时又通过合理的结构性改革保持经济的总需求平稳。

This article seeks to measure the relationship of financial leverage to physical leverage and total leverage in what can be described as a combination of three types of balance sheets. Since 2007, China has witnessed four rounds of surges in leverage. This article argues that monetary policy alone is insufficient to control harmful credit cycles and prevent excessive leverage. China＇s economy has additional room to maintain its rapid growth, and this potential can be realized through rational policies such as the use of interest rate tools in asset and liability management. At the same time, stable overall demand can be maintained through rational structural reforms.