全球长期贸易增速缘何下降?

What is the Cause of Slower Long-term Global Trade Growth?

次贷危机后,全球贸易增速显著放缓。本文回顾了全球贸易的发展历史,并对当前全球贸易增速下降的原因进行了深入的分析。研究结果表明,全球长期贸易增速下降既有周期性因素,也有结构性因素,并且结构性因素起到了重要作用。虽然自2017年以来全球贸易出现了一定的复苏,但未来全球贸易的发展依然面临巨大挑战。

Since the subprime mortgage crisis, growth in global trade has slowed significantly. This article reviews the history of global trade and provides an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the current decline in trade growth. The article concludes that the decline in long-term trade growth is due to cyclical and structural factors, with structural factors playing a particularly important role. Although there has been a modest recovery in global trade growth since 2017, enormous challenges to trade growth will be encountered in the future.