两孩政策背景下2018—2025年我国分年龄组劳动力供给量测算研究

Estimating China′s Labor Supply in the Sub Age Group during 2018-2025 under the Background of Universal Two-Child Policy

本文在分析我国不同年龄组劳动参与率变化规律的基础上,基于作者关于我国二孩政策背景下人口规模与结构的预测结果,测算了2018—2025年我国15—64岁每5岁年龄组劳动力的供给量。结果表明,我国劳动力将在2018—2025期间逐年递减,由7.60亿下降至7.37亿人,并将出现高龄化趋势。2025年我国25—29岁、45—49岁劳动力的占比分别比2018年的明显减少4.5与3个百分点,50—59岁劳动力的占比较2018年明显增加4.2个百分点。为缓解劳动力供给下降对经济发展带来的不良影响,建议通过减少育儿成本的举措提高生育水平,尤其是提高一孩的生育率;同时提高我国45-54岁的城市和镇女性的劳动参与率,增加劳动力供给。

Based on the change rule analysis of labor participation rate in different age groups in China,with the prediction results of population size and structure under the background of universal two-child policy,this paper calculated the supply of labor force aged 15-64 years old in 5 years group during 2018-2025 in China.The results showed that China＇s labor force would decrease year by year from 760 million in 2018 to 737 million in 2025,and there would be a trend of labor aging.In 2025,the proportion of labor force aged 25-29 and 45-49 years old in China would be 4.5 and 3 percentage points lower than those in 2018 respectively.The proportion of labor force aged 50-59 years old would increase by 4.2 percentage points in 2025 than that in 2018.In order to alleviate the labor supply decrease adverse effects on economic and social development,it is proposed to increase the fertility level,especially to the first child birth rate by reducing the cost to bring up children;improve China＇s 45-54 years old women＇s labor force participation rate in cities and towns.