大气污染与防治的过去、现在及未来

Air pollution and control: Past, present and future

大气污染危害性本质上是大气污染物对人体健康和人类生存环境的影响.文章将大气污染与防治分为物理过程、化学过程和生物过程,阐述了如何用数学方法与计算机技术描述和计算这3个过程,对其发展历程及相互关联进行了系统评述.综合论述了大气物理、大气化学、源排放清单、大气环境监测、气象场预报、空气质量预报、源解析与溯源、大气污染对人类健康的影响、大气污染控制等方面的理论、技术和方法的发展沿革、现状与存在的问题.由于大气污染与防治物理过程、化学过程、生物过程及其数学描述方法和计算原理等极为复杂又交错影响制约,文章提出了大气污染危害性识别与控制的理论框架及核心科学问题,指出动态排放源清单反演与生成、颗粒物毒性识别、化学过程数据同化、健康风险预报预警、应急来源解析、动态优化控制等方面的理论、技术、方法和标准还不成熟,是未来发展的主要方向.另外,文章指出将大气污染物毒性与健康风险直接关联,可为大气污染应急优化控制和产业结构调整、能源结构调整与重污染源布局的优化问题提供更加直接和有效的科技支撑.本文提出的理论框架及核心科学问题的实现,将为找准污染源头、实现靶向治理、促进生态文明建设的客观需要发挥基本作用.

The quality of air is closely related to everyone＇s life. However, due to the intense industrialization and urbanization, air pollution has affected or is affecting the health of the public. Since the notorious London smog and the Los Angeles photochemical smog events, the air pollution has been developing rapidly in recent years in some developing countries such as China and India. The essence of air pollution hazard is the impact of air pollutants on human health and environment. In view of the fragmentation of the research and one-sided knowledge of someone on air pollution and control, this paper is documented to review the whole status of technology development in this research field, to clarify the formation and elimination mechanism of air pollution, to correctly understand the hazard of air pollution and to promote the precise management of air pollution control. The research of the air pollution hazard is essentially the study of the effect of atmospheric pollution on human health and environment. The past, present and future status of air pollution and its control will be reviewed in this paper from the perspective of physical, chemical and biological process which are be modeling using mathematical technique, coding and programing. Meanwhile, the history, present and existing problems on atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, emission inventory, atmospheric environment monitoring, meteorological field forecast, air quality forecast, source apportionment and tracing source, the impact of air pollution on human health, and atmospheric pollution control are well summarized. From the classical analytical methods developed in the middle of the last century such as the Gaussian method to the numerical methods generally used so far, the physical processes of transmission, diffusion and sedimentation of pollutant are described and solved. The chemical processes represented by the London smog incident mainly sulfur compounds, by Los Angeles photochemical smog mainly O3 and nitrogenous compounds, and by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei fog-haze pollution mainly mixture of nitrogencontaining compounds and sulfur-based compounds have made breakthrough progresses, and the chemical mechanism are basically clear. A series of biological effects will be occurred when the pollutants are inhaled. The chemical composition of air pollutants will have oxidative stress reactions, lipid peroxidation and DNA damage, causing inflammation, cardiovascular disease, cancer and birth defects. At present, the research on the physical process is relatively mature, and the accuracy and effective days of weather forecast are increasing and extending gradually. However, the two-way feedback mechanism of meteorology and atmospheric pollution is still a difficult issue. The understanding of the main chemical processes is basically clear, but a large number of unknown reaction mechanisms need to be further explored, especially the chemical mechanism of the explosive growth of PM2.5. Cognition of biological processes is still preliminary, which are based primarily on statistical analysis but lack a theoretical basis and are needed to be further explored. The theoretical framework, as well as core issues of air pollution hazard identification and control, are be put forward and pointed out based on the theories, techniques, methods and standards of inversion and generation of emission sources, particle toxicity identification, chemical process assimilation, health risk prediction and early warning, synchronization source apportionment of predicting results, and dynamic optimal control are not yet mature, which are the main focus for future development, due to the extremely complicated and staggered influence as well as constraints on physical process, chemical process, biological process as well as mathematical description and computer calculation principle of air pollution and prevention. If the toxicity of pollutants is directly related to health risks, which may provide more direct, effective and scientific technological support for air pollution emergency optimal control as well as the optimal issues of industrial, energy structure adjustment and heavy pollution sources layout, it will play a fundamental role to meet the objective needs of identifying accurately pollution sources, achieving targeted management and promoting ecological civilization construction.