我国房地产业挤占了非房地产投资吗——“合理投资”还是“过度投资”

The real estate industry occupy Non-real estate investment in China——“reasonable investment” or “excessive investment”?

本文以全国2000-2015年290个地级市面板数据为研究对象,通过向量误差修正模型对我国房地产投资挤出效应进行了存在性检验,借鉴Agosin&Mayer研究思路,构建房地产投资挤出效应面板模型,结果发现:我国东部地区房地产投资挤出效应较强,而中西部地区相对较弱,即东部地区增加房地产投资引起的外部性较大;通过构建加入挤出效应的Feder两部门面板模型,进一步分析房地产投资对经济增长的影响,结果表明:考虑挤出效应后,房地产投资对经济增长的影响系数明显降低,从全国东、中、西地区对比来看,也证明了同样的结论,说明这种房地产投资所带来挤出效应将对整个经济发展产生一定的负面影响。

This paper,based on the panel data of 290 prefecture-level cities in 2000-2000,Constructs the real estate investment crowding effect panel model learning from Agosin ＆ Mayer＇s research ideas after examining the existence of the real estate in-vestment crowding effect by vector error correction model.The results show that real estate investment crowding effect is strong in the eastern region of China,while in the central and western regions it＇ s relatively weak,which indicates that in the eastern region the greater the intensity of real estate investment,the greater the externalities it causes.In addition,this paper ana-lyzes the impact of real estate investment on economic growth by constructing the Feder two-sector panel model with the ef-fect of adding extrusion.The results show that the influence coefficient of real estate investment on economic growth is obvi-ously reduced after considering the effect of extrusion.From the comparison of the east,middle and west regions of the whole country,the same conclusion is proved,which shows that the crowding effect of real estate investment Will have a certain nega-tive impact on the overall economic development.