石油美元计价的内在动因分析——兼论一篮子货币的几条特性

A Motive Analyse is on the Crude Oil's De nomination in U.S. Dollar——on the base of six attributes of currency basket

本文以梳理石油计价单位选择的可能和实践为基础,计算比较了八种单位的计价的效果,进而探讨OPEC国家以美元计价石油的四个内在激励相容:(1)一篮子非美元货币的构建两难;(2)美元入篮后的贬值和美元化问题;(3)切换计价币种的投资收益损失预期;(4)油价黏性导致的贸易收益损失预期。另外,本文以数理方法一般化证明了一篮子货币的六条特性,即单位无关性、总体向心性、值变结构性、强币挤占性、高权稳值性和尾大不掉性,并数值模拟分析了美元的价值权重和SDR价值走势,以从内在动因角度对货币体系走向浮动的背景下OPEC排他地选择美元计价石油给出一个国际金融学的解释。

On the base of analysis on the possibilities of crude oil＇s denomination theoretically and practically,this paper compares the consequences of eight kinds of unit of account for crude oil.Then it discusses four potential incentives of OPEC＇ s：（1）the dilemma of constructing a dollar-excluded basket;（2）the devaluation and dollarization problem of a dollar-included bas-ket;（3）the expectation of investment loss from shifting denomination currency;（4）the expectation of trade loss from sticky oil price.Besides,it generalizes six attributes of currency basket：independence of unit,centripetal tendency,weighted value change,strong currency＇s squeeze,high weight＇ s stabilizing effect and "too big to move",then numerally simulates the dollar weights in SDR and SDR＇s value.This paper is intended to give an interpretation in international finance for OPEC＇s denomination choice in the age of floating exchange rate regimes.