国际转移化解我国过剩产能——以钢铁行业为例的分析

The international transfer of China's excess capacity——Examples of the steel industry

近几年我国出现了较为严重的多产业产能过剩现象,经济增速放缓导致国内新增需求不足,因此通过国际转移途径输出产能成为缓解我国过剩产能问题的重要手段。本文以钢铁行业为例,利用成本函数法和GMM方法测度了1997至2016年间的产能利用率,并且运用VAR模型对"一带一路"倡议影响下我国钢铁国际需求增量进行预测,证明国际转移能够有效缓解我国严重的过剩产能问题。基于此,本文提出"一带一路"倡议背景下通过国际转移化解我国过剩产能的政策建议。

In recent years,phenomenon of excess capacity appeared in many industries of our country,the economic slowdown led to new domestic demand is insufficient,therefore,the use of the international transfer of output capacity is an important way to resolve overcapacity.This paper take the iron and steel industry as an example,using the cost function method and GMM method to measure capacity utilization of 1997 to 2014,predicting the international demand for China＇s steel under the influence of "One Belt and One Road" initiative through the application of VAR model,and founding that the international transfer can effectively resolve the overcapacity in china.Based on this,this paper put forward the policy suggestions to resolve overcapacity problem by the international transfer under the background of "One Belt and One Road"initiative.