贸易开放、政府规模与经济增长

Trade Openness, Government Scale and Economic Growth

贸易开放和政府规模一直存在"守夜人"和"保育员"之间的巨大分歧,然而撇开争论,发展对外贸易和规范政府行为的最终目标都落脚于经济增长。本文基于中国2002-2014年的省际面板数据,从区域差异的视角利用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)探讨了贸易开放、政府规模与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究发现:贸易开放对政府规模的影响总体上具有正向显著影响,从区域差异看,相比于中西部地区,具有正向效应的"保育员"角色在东部地区更加显著;总体上贸易开放能够促进经济增长,但贸易开放对经济增长影响又存在显著的区域差异,东部地区贸易开放对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,但中西部地区影响不显著;全样本分析表明政府规模对经济增长具有显著的负向抑制作用,这种负向冲击效应显著表现在东中西部地区,相比东部,政府规模对经济增长的解释力度在中西地区更高。以上研究结论对于丰富和加深对贸易开放、政府规模与经济增长关系的认识具有重要理论意义,同时对目前贸易政策和财政政策具有现实参考价值。

There has always been a huge disagreement between ＂watchman＂ and ＂caretaker＂ in trade liberalization and government size. However, aside from the dispute, the ultimate goal of devel- oping foreign trade and standardizing government behavior is settled in economic growth. Based on China＇s provincial panel data for 2002--2014 years, this paper explores the dynamic relationship be- tween trade openness, government size and economic growth from the perspective of regional differ- ences by panel vector auto regression （PVAR）. The empirical results show that： Trade openness has significant positive influence on the effect of government size on the whole. From the regional differ- ences, the role of ＂caretaker＂ with a positive effect is more significant in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. In general, trade openness can promote economic growth, but there are also significant regional differences in the impact of trade openness on economic growth. Trade open- ness in the eastern region has a significant positive effect on economic growth, but the impact in the central and western regions is not significant. Full sample analysis shows that the size of the govern- ment has a significant negative inhibitory effect on economic growth. This negative impact is evident in the eastern, central and western regions. Compared with the East, the government scale has a higher interpretation of economic growth in the western and western regions. The conclusions of the above studies have important theoretical significance for enriching and deepening the understanding of the re- lationship between trade openness, government scale and economic growth, and at the same time, it has realistic reference value for the current trade policy and fiscal policy.