如何破解我国出口增速下降困局

How to Decipher the Decline Dilemma of China's Export Growth

当前中国出口增速下滑成为理论和实践部门关注的重要议题。鉴于出口竞争力通常源自三个维度的质量状况,即宏观空间结构、中观产业结构和微观企业活力,因此可从上述三个维度分析中国出口增速下降困局并据此探寻可能的破题之策。研究表明:在空间结构质量上,中国出口对外主要以发达经济体为主,对内则形成了以东部地区为引领的失衡发展模式;在出口产业结构质量上,主要表现为依托劳动力密集型产品和资本密集型产品出口,从而低端嵌入全球价值链分工体系的失衡模式;在企业活力质量上,主要表现为以要素和投资驱动成为前一轮增长的主要驱动力。在出口增速趋缓背景下,重拾出口增长动力,应按照十九大报告关于"推动形成全面开放新格局"中强调的"优化区域开放布局、加快培育国际经济合作和竞争新优势"重要战略部署,从上述三个维度提升出口贸易发展质量,即在外部出口市场拓展新的空间,在内部空间布局上要形成协调发展新格局,在出口商品结构上要提升高端商品出口比重,在出口活力上主要是提升全要素生产率。

The current decline in China＇s export growth has become an important issue drawing at- tention from the circles of both theoretical research and practical operations. Export competitiveness usually involves the qualities in three dimensions, namely the space structure at the macro level, the industry structure in the middle and the entei＇prise vitality at the micro level. An analysis is, there- fore, possible to be made, in view of the three dimensions, of the decline in China＇s export growth, and to search for possible ways out of the dilemma. The analysis shows that, in terms of the quality of the space structure, China＇s export exhibits an imbalanced mode of development, which is character- ized by an orientation, globally speaking, towards the developed economies and, locally speaking, to- wards the eastern region of the country. In terms of the quality of export industry structure, another imbalance can be seen in the fact that too much reliance is laid on the export of labor intensive and cap- ital intensive products, which sits China at the low end of the value chain of the global system of work division. In terms of the quality of enterprise vitality, the major deficiency is that the main driving force behind the previous round of growth features factor--driven and investment--driven. Against the background of export growth slowing down, any effort to regain the power of export growth needs to address the upgrading of the above mentioned three qualities in accordance with the government＇s de- velopment strategies for the new era. To achieve this goal, Specific measures recommended include stretching for new space in the external export market, forming a new pattern of coordinated growth in overall domestic development arrangement, increasing the percentage of high end products among the export commodities, as well as raising total factor productivity.