唐山市水资源演变趋势研究

Research on the Evolution Trend of Water Resources in Tangshan City

水资源短缺、生态环境恶化等问题己成为唐山市经济和社会发展的重要瓶颈,根据唐山市历史水文数据资料、对影响唐山市水资源的主要因素:降水、蒸发、河川径流及水资源量采用回归统计分析方法进行论证分析,结果表明:唐山市水面蒸发量总体上有略微减小的趋势,从1981~2007的27 a间共减少11 mm,总体变化趋势较为稳定;年降水量呈减少趋势,从1956~2007年的52 a间共减少118 mm;年径流呈现出减少趋势,从1956~2007年的52 a间共减少86.5 mm,径流深系列存在明显下降趋势;水资源总量受地表水资源量影响,年际间波动值较大,也呈现出衰减趋势。在此基础上对未来唐山市水资源变化趋势进行预测。认为唐山市未来仍将面临缺水困扰,随着用水量逐年增长,供需矛盾仍将突出,解决水资源短缺问题需要长远规划和综合考虑。

The shortage of water resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment have become important bottlenecks in the economic and social development of Tangshan City.According to the historical hydrological data of Tangshan City,the main factors affecting the water resources in Tangshan are：Precipitation,evaporation,river runoff and water resources were analyzed by regression statistical analysis method.The results show that：Overall,the water evaporation in the mountainous area tends to slightly decrease from 11 mm in the 27 years from 1981 to 2007,and the overall trend is stable.The annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend,decreasing 118 mm from 52 years in 1956-2007.Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend,a total decrease of 86.5 mm in the 52 years from 1956 to 2007,and there was a clear downward trend in the series of runoff depths.The total amount of water resources is affected by the amount of surface water resources,fluctuating between years and also showing a declining trend.Based on this,the future trend of water resources in Tangshan City is predicted.Tangshan City,the future that will continue to face the problem of lack of water,with water consumption increased year by year,the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to highlight the issue of water shortage to solve the long-term planning and comprehensive consideration.