摘要
根据H7N9流感的传播机理,结合百度指数,建立了H7N9传播动力学模型.对模型进行了理论分析,得到基本再生数、无病平衡点及正周期解的稳定性;并给出实际病例与百度指数的相关性,进而通过对实际病例和百度指数的数据拟合,验证了模型的合理性;最后,分析了禽的因病死亡率对H7N9流感传播阈值及流行趋势的影响,为疾病的预防和控制提供支撑.
This paper,combining Baidu index with transmission mechanism of H7N9 flu,establishes H7N9 transmission dynamical model.Then,we give theoretical analysis of this model,obtaining the basic reproductive number and demonstrating the stability of disease-free equilibrium and positive periodic solution.Moreover,correlation between actual cases and Baidu index is given,and further rationality of the model is confirmed by fitting the actual cases and Baidu index.Lastly,the effects of avian mortality on the transmission threshold and epidemic trend of H7N9 influenza are analyzed,which provides support for disease prevention and control.
作者
王璐
张娟
WANG Lu;ZHANG Juan(School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China;Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)
出处
《云南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第2期49-55,共7页
Journal of Yunnan Normal University:Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11601292)
山西省重点实验室资助项目(201705D111006)
