资管行业“刚性兑付”的演化博弈分析

The Evolutionary Game Analysis of “Rigid-Payment” of Asset Management Industry

资管行业"刚性兑付"问题已成为影响金融稳定的因素之一,资管行业打破"刚性兑付",回归"卖者尽责、买者自负"的正常轨道势在必行。首先从博弈论的分析视角,将资管行业"刚性兑付"形成与化解纳入到演化博弈的分析框架,通过构建无监管部门监管干预和有监管部门监管干预的博弈分析模型,分析了资管行业"刚性兑付"困局的形成以及监管部门参与资管行业"刚性兑付"治理的必要性。然后推演了监管部门与资管机构参与化解"刚性兑付"困局的演变路径与策略选择,得出了监管部门和资管机构的演化稳定策略。在上述分析基础上,从三个方面提出了化解资管行业"刚性兑付"困局的政策建议。

The rigid payment of asset management industry has become one ot the tactors tnat aliect ilnancia, paper incorporates the formation and crack of rigid - payment of asset management industry into the analytic frame- work of evolutionary game theory, analyzes the dilemma＇ s the formation of the asset management industry rigid - payment and the necessity of regulatory authorities which participates in dealing with the problem of rigid - payment of the asset management industry by the game model with the government~ regulatory intervention and non govern- ment~ regulatory intervention. Further,the article deduces the evolution path and strategy choice of regulatory agen- cies and asset management agencies to resolve the dilemma of rigid - payment of the asset management institutions, and draws the evolutionary stability strategy of the regulatory authorities and the asset management institutions. On this basis, this article puts forward the policy suggestions to resolve the dilemma of rigid - payment of the asset management industry from three aspects.