中国煤炭去产能省区分配研究

Study on Coal De-capacity Allocation Among Provinces in China

在全国25个省区煤炭行业相关数据的基础上,估计了各省区煤炭边界生产函数,并将去产能成本划分为人员安置成本和资产损失两部分,构建了各省区煤炭去产能成本的测算方法。由此建立以最小化全国去产能成本为目标的煤炭去产能省区分配的非线性规划模型。在满足2020年煤炭需求以及保持区域调运平衡的基础上,约束全国及区域煤炭产能,得到了去产能的省区分配方案。与各省区煤炭去产能计划方案比较,结果显示优化模型分配方案成本更低。

Based on the statistics of coal industry in 25 provinces from 1986 to 2015, the frontier production functions were estimated for each coal province, then the de - capacity cost was measured by divided into two parts：staff resettlement cost and asset loss. From that, a nonlinear programming model was established for the coal de - capacity allocation among provinces in China with a minimum total de - capacity cost. On the basis of meeting the demand for coal and maintaining the balance of regional transport in 2020, the optimal coal de - capacity alloca- tion was obtained with the national and regional coal capacity constraints. The optimal allocation was the more cost -effective compared with that designed by those provincial governments.