广义虚拟经济与实体经济关联性研究

Research on the Relation Ship Between Generalized Virtual Economy and Real Economy

近些年来,广义虚拟经济与实体经济背离发展的现象越来越严重,行业收入差距出现了扩大趋势。本文基于1993—2016年相关数据,构建了向量自回归模型,通过单位根检验、协整检验、因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析以及方差分解分析,结果表明:(1)广义虚拟经济与实体经济存在背离发展的势头;(2)广义虚拟经济是实体经济的格兰杰原因;(3)实体经济的变动主要由其自身决定。针对以上结论,提出了以下解决措施:(1)培育理性投资人,参与到广义虚拟经济当中;(2)完善虚拟经济市场制度,服务实体经济发展;(3)推动广义虚拟经济与实体经济深入融合。

In recent years, the phenomenon of the deviation between the generalized virtual economy and the real economy is becoming more and more serious, and the industry income gap has expanded. More and more people discuss about the relationship between real economy and virtual economy. Based on relevant data from 1993 to 2016, the paper constructs a vector autoregressive model and carries out the unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis.The results show that （1）The virtual economy has deviated from the real economy （2） Virtual economy is the Grainger reason of the real economy （3） The changes of real economy aremainly decided by its own. In view of the above conclusions, the following measures are put forward：（1） Cultivate rational investors and participate in the generalized virtual economy（2）Perfect the virtual economic market system and serve the development of the real economy （3） Promote the integration of virtual economy and real economy.