对欧洲前工业社会物价波动的经济学解释

An Economic Explanation of Price fluctuation in Pre-industrial Society in Europe

传统上认为,人口论与货币数量论相对立,不能解释前工业社会总体物价波动。实际并非如此。由人口数量变化所造成的人均收入的波动,可以导致前工业社会货币供给数量与货币流通速度的变化,最终影响总体物价。通过这个机制,人口论与货币数量论得以综合,可以解释前工业社会物价变动的特殊规律。人口论实际上是一种前工业社会的内生货币供给机制。

Traditionally, it is considered that Postan's demographic hypothesis can not explain the overall price fluctuation in pre-industrial society, and that it is incompatible with the quantity theory of money. The author does not agree with this. This article contends that fluctuation of per capita income caused by demographic changes can result in changes of the endogenous money supply and in changes of velocity of money circulation in pre-industrial society, and it ultimately results in the overall price fluctuation. Through this mechanism, Postan's demographic hypothesis and the quantity theory of money can be integrated. Therefore, Postan's demographic hypothesis can explain the special law of price fluctuation in pre-industrial society. Postan's demographic hypothesis is actually a kind of endogenous money supply mechanism in pre-industrial society.