温岭市饮用水源地水质现状分析及预测研究

Analysis and Prediction Study of Water Quality in Drinking Water Sources in Wenling

运用综合污染指数法和综合营养指数法分析了2011—2017年第二季度温岭市四个集中式饮用水源地水质变化趋势,并对水库水质进行了灰色聚类分析。基于水库补水主要依靠降水,采用灰色关联法分析了降雨量与综合污染指数、综合营养指数、总磷、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮的关联度。运用GM(1,1)模型对2018~2022年降雨量以及水库综合污染指数和综合营养指数进行了预测。

The comprehensive pollution index method and comprehensive nutrition index method were used to analyze the water quality change trend in four centralized drinking water source of Wenling city in the second quarter from 2011 to2017.Furthermore Grey clustering analysis of reservoir water quality was carried out.Capitalizing on the fact that the reservoir water recharge mainly relies on precipitation,the correlation degree between rainfall and comprehensive pollution index,comprehensive nutrition index,total phosphorus,permanganate index,ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen was analyzed by grey relational analysis.The GM（1,1）model was used to predict the annual rainfall,the comprehensive pollution index and the comprehensive nutrition index of the four reservoirs from 2018 to 2022.