从生育意愿与生育行为的转变看我国大城市全面两孩政策的实施效应——以上海为例

Study on the Implementation Effect of Universal Two-child Policy:Based on the Transition of Fertility Desire and Fertility Behavior of People in Shanghai

文章以特大型城市上海为例,运用横断历史元分析法,通过梳理1983—2013年间上海开展的9项生育意愿调查结果,反映30年间上海育龄人群生育意愿的历史性变迁,表明意愿子女数不断减少,且大大低于2个孩子。同时,基于大量生育统计资料的分析,刻画生育行为和生育水平的变迁,表明晚婚、晚育、少生已经成为主流的、现实的选择,上海已有20年左右处于总和生育率低于1的超低生育水平。"双独两孩"和"单独两孩"政策实施效果表明,在上海这样的特大型城市,生育政策已不再是决定生育行为和生育水平的主导因素。最后提出,仅靠"全面两孩"政策对生育水平的提升有限,建议完善支持家庭生育和养育的服务和政策。

Based on the results of nine surveys on fertility desire in Shanghai since the early 1980 s,this paper describes and analyzes the trend of fertility desire in the past thirty years by cross-temporal meta-analysis. The findings show that the desired number of children has been decreasing,and far below 2.And the fertility statistics show that fertility of Shanghai has been at an extremely low level of less than 1 for about two decades. Particularly,lots of couples who were allowed to have two children before the implementation of universal two-child policy failed to go for a second child. This indicates that the government fertility policy may no longer be the main factor leading to the very low fertility level in Shanghai. This paper finally suggests that even with the implementation of a universal two child policy,Shanghai＇s fertility level might unlikely move upward tangibly.