基于灰色模型的中国粮食最低收购价政策研究

Studies on China Grain Minimum Purchase Price Policy Based on Grey Model

粮食最低收购价政策是我国重要的粮食价格调控政策,政策实施效果的评价对调整政策、调控粮食市场有着重要影响。文章基于灰色模型,首先选取粮食种植面积作为主要指标,根据实施政策前1990~2005年小麦主产区各省的小麦种植面积数据,运用Matlab软件基于灰色模型预测小麦主产区若不实行低价保护政策的粮食种植面积。然后,通过残差,级比偏差和相对误差,验证模型的准确性。最后,利用模型预测2006~2010年主产区小麦种植面积,通过对比小麦主产区在执行和不执行政策两种情况下,种植面积年增长率的变化,评价最低收购价的执行效果。通过建立有效的粮食最低收购价政策评价模型,对政策的实施效果和调整政策提供理论依据。

The grain minimum purchasing policy is an important regulatory control method of grain price, its implementation effect evaluation is significant for the adjustment of grain market. Based on empirical data of grain acreage in 1990~2005 by province before the implementation of the policy, we build the grey model through Matlab program to predict the wheat planting area of wheat producing provinces without the influence of the grain minimum purchasing policy. Then, the accuracy of the model is verified by the residual error, class ratio dispersion and relative error. Finally, we use the model to predict the wheat planting acreage of major wheat producing provinces in 2006 ~2010 and compare predicted annual growth rate of wheat planting acreage with the empirical data to evaluate the efficacy of the policy. In this paper, we establish an effective evaluation model for the grain minimum purchasing policy that provided theoretical basis for the effect and adjustment of the policy.