职业教育与城镇化、工业化的动态关系——基于VAR模型的实证检验

Dynamic Relationships among Secondary Vocational Education,Urbanization and Industrialization in China:An Empirical Test Based on VAR Model

构建VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证检验了我国中等职业教育与城镇化、工业化三者间的动态关系。实证发现,中等职业教育与城镇化、工业化间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,初期城镇化与工业化的冲击对中等职业教育为负向效应,中后期对中等职业教育产生正向效应,城镇化与中等职业教育间的交互作用较强。

A VAR model involving co integration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition was constructed to examine the dynamic relationship among secondary vocational education, urbanization and industrialization in China. The empirical analysis indicates that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among them： urbanization and industrialization at the preliminary stage have negative impact on secondary vocational education, later on they can positively inf uence secondary vocational education, and on its f nal stage, there is a strong cross effect between urbanization and secondary vocational education.