摘要
基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM),针对海洋平台的特点,对共同绩效条件(Common Performance Condition,CPC)进行调整。用层次分析法确定每个评价水平的权重,实现CPC因子不同评价水平对事故的影响程度区分。利用模糊数学和贝叶斯网络解决CREAM模型任务环境和控制模式离散化问题,对其概率预测方法进行改进。以某平台为例,用改进后的CREAM方法,预测该平台人的失误概率。
The Common Performance Condition（CPC） of the Cognitive Reliability and Er-ror Analysis Method （CREAM） is adjusted according to the characteristics of offshore plat-form. Considering the different effects of the different common performance conditions？ evalu-ation level, weight of every CPC is determined by analytic hierarchy process. The probability forecast method of CREAM model is modified by solving the problem of the discretization of working conditions and control mode with Fuzzy Mathematics and Bayesian Network. A plat-form is taken as an example and the modified CREAM method is used to calculate the proba-bility of human errors of the platform.
作者
王彦富
李彪
王静
闫培娜
WANG Yanfu;LI Biao;WANG Jing;YAN Peina(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580, Shandong, Chin)
出处
《中国海洋平台》
2018年第2期74-78,共5页
China offshore Platform
关键词
海洋平台
火灾爆炸
人因组织错误
认知可靠性与失误分析方法
人误概率
贝叶斯网络
offshore platform
fire and explosion
human and organizational error
Cog-nitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method （CREAM）
human error probabilities
Bayesian network
