贸易会导致福利恶化吗?——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

Will Trade Worsen Welfare? An Empirical Study Using Cross-national Panel Data

贸易的福利水平在不同国家间存在差异,这在学术界似乎已达成共识。但这一理论主要源于收入视角的考察。实际上贸易对一国福利的影响还包括闲暇与就业、寿命与健康、社会公平等多维度,这也提出了从综合福利水平测算入手进行深入讨论的要求。综合考察贸易的福利效应的技术路线是,通过改进已有福利算法,选取分工地位与国家规模作为反映国别差异的调节变量,利用1990-2011年60个国家和地区的跨国面板数据,实证检验基于贸易的福利效应及其国别差异。结果表明,即使考虑福利的非经济因素及贸易发展付出的代价,贸易仍然可以通过全球资源的优化配置在平均意义上促进各国福利发展,但贸易"福利相对恶化效应"是一种普遍现象,不同经济体之间的福利效应存在明显差异,尤其在发达国家和发展中国家之间表现出较为严重的不公平,可能导致一些国家尤其是发展中大国绝对意义上的福利恶化。

This paper focuses on the welfare effect of trade and its national differences from the perspec-tive of comprehensive welfare. We make a relevant empirical test by introduction of division status and national scale, reflecting national nature, as moderators using a panel data of 60 economies from 1990 to 2011 based on measurement of comprehensive welfare. The result shows that trade still has positive effect on the development of welfare on average by optimizing the distribution of global resource, even if taking non - economic factors of welfare and the cost of trade into consideration. The welfare effect of trade among economies shows significant difference and serious unfair is found in the distribution of trade benefits between developed and developing countries. Further analysis indicates that, trade will widen the welfare gap between economies, i. e. the wel-fare comparative worsening effect of trade is a universal phenomenon, and trade may even worsen welfare in an absolute sense in some countries, especially large developing countries.