人口城镇化对省域教育人力资本收敛的非线性影响研究

Research on the Nonlinear Influence of the Urbanization of Population on the Convergence of Provincial Human Capital in Education

利用1996-2014年我国省级面板数据,借鉴并改进经济收敛理论,构建门限回归模型,实证检验人口城镇化对省域教育人力资本收敛的非线性影响。结果发现:我国劳动力的平均受教育年限呈增长趋势;教育人力资本的期初投入与后期增长呈反向变动,落后地区较高的后期增速满足绝对β收敛特征,但条件β收敛进程显著快于绝对β收敛;人口城镇化对教育人力资本收敛存在非线性影响,单一门槛值为84.5%。

Using China＇s provincial panel data from 1996 to 2014, the study establishes a panel threshold regression model to explore the nonlinear influence of the urbanization of population on the convergence of provincial human capital in education. Key findings are summarized as follows： there is a long-term growth trend in average educational attainment in China; the initial input and later growth of human capital in education changes in reverse; the higher growth rate in backward areas satisfies the characteristics of absolute beta convergence, but the conditional beta convergence process is significantly faster than the absolute beta convergence; the urbanization of population has nonlinear influence on the convergence of human capital in education, with a single threshold value of 84.5%.